1) Since the rise of Vladimir Putin to the Russian Presidency in 2000, Russia has demonstrated a willingness to use military action: initially to end the de facto independence of Chechnya 1999 but in 2008 intervening in Georgia, a recognised sovereign state. Russia justified its intervention on humanitarian grounds as the Georgians had sought to subjugate the de facto independence of two pro – Russian enclaves whose citizens held Russian passports. (Handed out since 2000) Similar pockets of pro – Russian groups exist in Moldova, Ukraine and the Baltic States. Russia has made clear its opposition to: EU and NATO expansion into Eastern Europe; the US construction of a missile defence shield in Poland and the Czech Republic; and Western recognition of the independence of Kosovo. It could potentially use these frozen social conflicts as justification for political and even military intervention in its former territories.

2) Unlike almost any other state Russia has the means and increasingly the will to disrupt Western foreign policy across the globe. Recent Russian arms sales to Venezuela and more poignantly to Iran are a reminder of Russian military technology and reduce the pressure the West can bring to bear on Iran in the increasingly fraught negotiations over nuclear fuel enrichment. Moreover Russia, as a permanent member of the UN Security Council, can veto any UN resolutions intended to force Iranian compliance. Russia, as the world’s largest state and nuclear power, can cause untold disruption to Western foreign policy.

3) The term “energy superpower” has entered our lexicon since Russia started to interfere with gas shipments to Europe. Gazprom, the principal exporter of Russian and central Asian gas, is part controlled by the Kremlin and often perceived in the West as a tool of Russian foreign policy. Russian dominance can be divided into its control, on the one hand, of gas resources in Russia itself, and on the other, of Caspian and putative Central Asian pipelines that must straddle Russian territory before they reach European markets. The energy threat, therefore, is of direct concern to Western as well as Eastern Europe. And Germany and Italy are among the recipients of Russian sourced energy. Western geopolitical interest in Georgia is often seen as method of removing the Russian energy stranglehold as the former offers an alternative pipeline route for Central Asian energy hence the effort by Europe and America to bring Georgia into the Western orbit.

1) Russia does not pose a direct threat to Britain, or even for that matter, to any state in the European Union with the possible exception of the Baltic States. While Putin has described the fall of the USSR as “geopolitical disaster” of the 20th Century, little mention has been made of the former Warsaw Pact states in Central and Eastern Europe that have now entered into both NATO and the European Union. The USSR, which comprised of Russia, the Central Asian Republics, the Caucasus, the Baltic States, Belarus and Ukraine, was separate from the other Warsaw pact countries. From NATO and the European Union, only the Baltic States present a large Russian grievance. The removal of the Red Army statue in Tallinn provoking a Russian diplomatic freeze in 2007. Britain is under no NATO obligation to defend Ukraine, Georgia or Moldova though both Britain and other NATO members would want to prevent any Russian action.

2) The term “rogue states” has been used to describe North Korea, Afghanistan under the Taliban and Iran. Russia, however, does not fill the conditions and is too important to be put in the same category. While the West should not approve of the Kremlin’s actions both internally and externally, it has little choice but to grudgingly accept Russia’s growing authoritarianism (Note, however, that Putin remains extremely popular) and action in its “near abroad”. The West continues to deal with China despite its occupation of Tibet and following the Tiananmen Square massacre; the West is even closer to Israel that is in violation of UN resolutions over occupation of the Gaza Strip and the West bank.

3) Russia’s actions and ambitions fit within a clear framework and as such can be dealt with. Indeed, Russia believes that its actions have been reactive rather than a policy of aggression. The expansion of NATO towards its borders coupled with the refusal to consider Russia a member has been regarded as aggressive; so too for deep historical reasons the recognition of Kosovo’s independence. These moves, moreover, have followed actions perceived in Russia as conciliatory to the West that included little opposition to the expansion of the EU; US rights to military bases in Central Asia and intelligence in the war on terror. Russia’s actions can therefore be identified within a clear framework and so its revanchist foreign policy can be managed.

4) In the long – term Russia is quite different to the USSR. The latter was one of the world’s superpowers with an ideology that had to spread to 5 continents. NATO’s only response to a Russian conventional attack in Europe was nuclear weapons as the Warsaw Pact overwhelmingly outnumbered NATO forces. The current Russia has used oil revenues to revamp its Cold War forces but it does not compare to that of the USSR. Russia’s concerns are more concerned with internal than external issues. In the East, Russia fears that its sparsely populated territory is being slowly subsumed by China. Its population is shrinking and suffers from chronic alcoholism. In its current condition Russia will need the West just as much as the West needs Russia’s co-operation. And so, is unlikely to become a serious threat to the West.

Vladimir Putin is perhaps the most intelligent statesman alive today. His knowledge of history and geo-political wars is unparallelled. He has stated emphatically that Russia has no wish to enter into cold or hot wars with the US or Nato. It is the US who has re-ignited the flames of hatred between the two countries by assisting Georgia in its pathetic invasion of South Ossetia. We have more to fear from the USA than Russia, Iran or Iraq. It is USA which is the true Hawk all across the globe. Russia is only interested in rebuilding itself as an economic power not fighting foreign wars on foreign soil.